授業の目的 【日本語】
Goals of the Course(JPN) | | | 本コースでは基礎統計理論について講義する。より具体的には、確率理論と統計的推論の基礎を扱う。本コースの目的は、統計に基づく意思決定の前提や確率理論／統計的推論の考え方に慣れることである。本コースで扱う内容は、エコノメトリクス・コースを理解するための前提となる。本コースで扱う問題の一例として、下記英文を参照。 |
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授業の目的 【英語】
Goals of the Course | | | This course introduces students to basic theories of probability and statistical inference. The objective of the course is to understand the assumptions (requirements) of statistical decision making and to get used to the ideas of probability/statistical inference. This process lays the groundwork for the sequence of econometrics courses. To give you an idea about what kinds of problems we discuss in this course, here is an example. It is said that there were 18.7 million births in China during 2003 and that the reported sex ratio was 117 boys for each 100 girls. Do you think this reported sex ratio is likely if the probability of having a boy versus girl is 50/50? |
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到達目標 【日本語】
Objectives of the Course(JPN) | | Students are expected to understand the concepts of (1) probability distribution and (2) statistical inference (interval estimation and hypothesis testing) and to apply the learned concepts to socioeconomic problems like the one given above.
本コース終了時に学生は、確率分布や統計的推論[区間推定や仮説検定]の考え方を理解して、上記のような社会経済問題に応用できるようになることを到達目標とする。 |
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授業の内容や構成
Course Content / Plan | | １& 2: Probability (3.1 – 3.6) [Inside of the parentheses are sections of the required textbook given below.]（カッコ内は下記の教科書における章.節を示す。）
3: Descriptive Statistics (2.1-2.6)
４& 5: Univariate Probability Distribution (4.1 – 4.6)
6 & 7: Multivariate Probability Distribution (5.1 – 5.4)
８& 9: Sampling Distributions (6.1 – 6.4)
10: Point Estimation (7.1 – 7.4)
11 & 12: Interval Estimation (8.1 – 8.5)
13, 14, & 15: Tests of Hypotheses (9.1 – 9.4, 9.6) |
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履修条件・関連する科目
Course Prerequisites and Related Courses | | No prerequisites. Only basic arithmetics (including square root and summation operator) are necessary.
平方根やΣなど算術基礎のみを履修条件とする。 |
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成績評価の方法と基準
Course Evaluation Method and Criteria | | Final exam (100%) is used to measure the level of understanding on the concepts covered in the course. Students can use eight Problem Sets (to be given in the course website, along with my answers) to check their understanding of the learned concepts. The final exam is a list of questions which are very similar to ones in the Problem Sets. To pass this course, decent level of understanding of the learned concepts is necessary.
期末試験[ウェイト100%]で学生の学習到達度を評価する。8セットの練習問題と解答を使って、各自の理解度をチェックすることができる。本コース合格のためには、確率理論と統計的推論の基礎知識が必要。 |
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教科書・参考書
Textbook/Reference Book | | | Required Text: Wonnacott and Wonnacott, Introductory Statistics, 5th Edition, Wiley, 1990. A used book is available at US Amazon. Including international shipping, the price is around $30. Copies of chapters 2, 3, and 4 are available on the course website for the time being before you get a textbook. |
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課外学習等（授業時間外学習の指示）
Study Load(Self-directed Learning Outside Course Hours) | | Students are expected to solve questions in a relevant Problem Set after each lecture to check the level of understanding of the leaned concepts.
毎週の講義の後に、練習問題に各自取り組むこと。 |
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注意事項
Notice for Students | | | This course will be taught in Japanese although all course materials (including class handouts and final exam) are written in English. 本講義は日本語で行うが、講義で配布する資料や期末試験は英語で書かれている。 |
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授業開講形態等
Lecture format, etc. | | Face-to-face lectures
対面授業科目（原則として対面のみ） |
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遠隔授業（オンデマンド型）で行う場合の追加措置
Additional measures for remote class (on-demand class) | | |
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質問への対応方法
Office hour | | | By appointment. Please bring questions to a meeting set by appointment. Do not send an email from TACT. The instructor rarely checks TACT emails. |
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